How Our 2017 NFL Predictions Work

A good deal of FiveThirtyEight’s NFL coverage this season will use Elo ratings, a simple system that estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. As we’ve done in the past few years, we’re using those Elo ratings to calculate NFL predictions that include win probabilities and point spreads for every game in this season’s NFL schedule, as well as continually updating team rankings.How do our Elo ratings work? FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote a detailed FAQ about the formula a few years ago, and almost all of it still applies. Teams gain and lose ground based on the final score of each game and how unexpected the result was in the eyes of the pregame ratings. Under Elo, teams pick up where they left off: The initial team ratings for 2017 are by definition the same as last season’s end-of-year ratings, only more compressed because of regression toward the mean. (Specifically, we regress each team’s rating to the mean by one-third, with the league average team clocking in slightly above 1500.)This means that going into Week 1, the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots are again the NFL’s highest-rated teams, albeit with lower Elo ratings than when they faced off last season in Houston for Super Bowl LI. Why? Like other well-designed predictive rating systems, including ESPN’s Football Power Index, Elo is appropriately cautious early in the season; a team must prove itself to warrant a very high or very low rating. Combine that with the luck inherent in the NFL — the best teams don’t always win — and even the Patriots have just an 18 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. That forecast is actually quite high by Elo standards; indeed, it’s the highest preseason Super Bowl win probability we’ve had since we began publishing these numbers. But at the same time, 18 percent will seem conservative to the NFL fans who assume the Patriots have a 95.5 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl until Tom Brady retires or Bill Belichick resigns.It’s important to note that Elo does not reflect injuries or personnel changes, which helps explain why the forecast for the New York Jets, who spent the summer getting rid of all their players with talent, may seem rosy. We currently have the Jets with a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs; that is very optimistic compared with the long-shot odds that a Las Vegas sportsbook is giving the Jets to win the Super Bowl (1,000-to-1!). Don’t get too excited, Jets fans: Their Elo rating will catch up with them in no time if they are as bad as billed. read more

Finance Minister to deliver Q3 report

first_img Recommended for you Related Items:quarter three, report, washington misick Preview of Budget reveals salary hikes, millions is saving with retired of UK bail out loan Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Cabinet Ministers get to spend more, CFO stays on the job Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, 04 Feb 2015 – When Minister Washington Misick speaks to media today, it is expected to be a glowing report on the third quarter performance of the Turks and Caicos. The country is already basking in the highest recorded tourism growth for the region at around 35% for early in 2014 and a revenue surplus of nearly $20 million dollars, also for the first three months of the new fiscal year. During a recent Cabinet meeting, it was agreed that the fiscal performance report would be published in the Gazette and that the Gazette will soon become more accessible to members of the public. Free at the government’s website and $200 for annual email or hardcopy subscriptions. While the Q1 report showed a significant surge in recurrent revenue; Quarter two’s performance was not the same. It fell slightly below expectations by around 1% according to the government provided ‘Second Quarter Financial Report.’ The highest expenditure was government’s payroll at $16.8 million dollars, followed by healthcare costs at over $11 million dollars; slightly above what was earmarked and slightly above what was spent last year the same period. The first two quarters of this nearly ended budget year revealed that recurrent expenditure was $74 million or about 11% below budget estimates and the savings, according to the Ministry of Finance report was due to budgetary controls exerted over personnel costs and other operating expenses despite the 10% salary reinstatement being fully reflected this financial year. It will be interesting to hear what the Finance Minister shares later this morning… The report on the fiscal performance for Q3 will come at the Provo International Airport where there is also expected to be spotlight placed on airport workers and Immigration officers. TCI European Union money could be lost due to UK referendum on membershiplast_img read more

VVPATs to be used in all polling booths for the first time

first_imgKolkata: For the first time in the state, Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) will be used in all polling booths along with the EVM machines, Sunil Arora, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) said on Friday.He said that the EVM and VVPAT machines are secure and have proved effective on all parameters. He ruled out the possibility of reintroduction of ballot papers and said for the past two decades EVMs have been used and have been every effective. Also Read – Speeding Jaguar crashes into Mercedes car in Kolkata, 2 pedestrians killedIt may be mentioned that the Opposition leaders, while addressing the United India rally, had demanded reintroduction of ballot papers as EVMs can be tampered with very easily. Arora said: “Tampering and malfunctioning have different meanings but the words have been used in ways as if they are synonymous.” A full team of ECI led by the Chief Election Commissioner and Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa, paid a visit to review the poll preparedness of the state government. The bench held meetings will leaders of the political parties, District Magistrates, Superintendents of Police, nodal officers of Income Tax, Excise and Commercial tax departments and representatives of civil society groups. Also Read – Bose & Gandhi: More similar than apart, says Sugata BoseThe Commission met state Chief Secretary Malay De, Home Secretary Atri Bhattacharya and DGP Virendra and took stock of the law and order situation. Arora said that the Commission will seek an explanation from Rajeev Kumar, Commissioner of Kolkata Police, who did not attend the meeting on Thursday. The Commission has asked all the District Magistrates and police officers to ensure speedy execution of Non-Bailable Warrants (NBWs) and speedy disposal of pending cases of electoral offences from the last election. The Commission also directed effective use of IT applications Samadhan, Suvidha and Sugam. The CEC said the Central forces will be under police observers and assured a free and fair election. Special security arrangements will be made in the sensitive areas. Adequate CCTV coverage and webcasting in polling stations will be there in sensitive areas. Asked whether the ECI will be able to stop intimidation of voters, Arora assured that election will be free and fair and that the state government has been instructed to take up the law and order issue seriously. He said to ensure impartial monitoring of the election, accessibility observers will be appointed for the first time. The Commission will appoint general observers, police observers, expenditure observers and micro observers. The CEC said representatives of the political parties had requested to deploy Central forces one month before the election and they should carry out route march in the sensitive areas. Some parties had demanded that district officials be instructed to ensure verification of licensed arms and to take effective action against unlicensed arms.last_img read more

July 16 2014On June 24 2014 the Pavilion Stage a

first_imgJuly 16, 2014On June 24. 2014 the Pavilion Stage at Taliesin was set up with nine 4×7 foot photo murals featuring and describing the work and mission of the “Two Worlds Community Foundation.” This 501(c)3 Public Charity is a design-based educational organization focused on all aspects relating to how we live with each other as well as the relationships between all of humanity and the workings of nature upon which all else depends.[photo and text by Vern Swabeck]The evening began with informal discussions regarding the design-related displays prepared for the event. Once seated, the program started with a performance by the Charles Lewis Quintet, using the improvisational interplay between the musician to illustrate the dynamics and artfulness of community. The audience was at all times invited to make comments or ask questions.Other presenters included the pioneering work of Bryan Bealieau who is currently developing a program to involve 4th and 5th graders all over the world in the research and development of a 440 foot diameter model of the earth, which will be under continuous redevelopment, not only to tract the changing dynamics of the world, but to enlist each new generation of the world’s 4th and 5th grade children.Trisha McCarty is the award-winning founder and President of StarShine Academy and the StarShine concept for extending educational outreach all over the world. She presented her “School in a Box” concept along with an account of her pioneering work to date. Vernon Swaback, a former Taliesin apprentice, architect, planner and crusading author discussed the dynamic changes which are reshaping both our American way of life and the greater world beyond, all in the context of design.The most global view concerning the changing dynamics of community was presented by Jeff Stein. Jeff is an award-winning architect, writer and educator who was the long-time Dean of the Boston Architectural College and is now president of Cosanti Foundation, the urban research organization founded by Paolo Soleri.The common denominator of the multi-themed program centered around the urgent joy of community – urgent because without mastering the art of community, there can be no human future; and joyful because there is nothing more exciting than what Frank Lloyd Wright demonstrated and described as “taking a positive hand in creation.”last_img read more

Townships need more control over drilling operations — Rep Lucido

first_img Lawmaker unveils legislation to address concerns in Shelby TownshipMichigan townships would have the ability to regulate the setback distance between oil drilling operations and residential homes under legislation introduced today by Rep. Peter J. Lucido that updates an archaic state law created in the 1940s.Michigan cities and villages can establish their own rules regarding gas and oil drilling setbacks but townships are regulated by the state.  After hearing ongoing complaints from township residents, the state Department of Environmental Quality recently issued new rules for townships, but Rep. Lucido said the guidelines don’t properly address the setback issue.“Township residents have inherent rights to their safety and well-being, and those rights are not being properly addressed by the DEQ,” said Rep. Lucido, a Republican from Shelby Township. “They’re still taking a 1940s approach to a 21st century reality.  Townships today are much more densely populated, and these municipal governments deserve to properly monitor drilling operations to keep people safe and help maintain their quality of life.”Rep. Lucido said more than 90 percent of all drilling operations in Michigan occur in townships, and it doesn’t make sense that township officials are unable to regulate the operations to best serve residents.  Rep. Lucido’s bill would repeal a portion of the Michigan Zoning Enabling Act that prohibits townships from regulating or controlling gas and oil drilling operations within their boundaries.“I fully support drilling because it’s an important way to lessen our dependence on foreign oil and keep costs down, but these companies need to be good neighbors,” said Rep. Lucido. “The state’s current policy is not sufficient to protect the health, safety and well-being of township residents.  My legislation will empower township governments and give residents the rights they deserve. ”Rep. Lucido said Shelby Township residents are concerned about recent drilling operations in the area, but currently have no genuine recourse to address their concerns.  He said giving township governments the opportunity to set their own parameters, especially when it comes to establishing setbacks, will benefit all residents.“Townships make up the largest majority of municipal governments in our state, but because of a 1940s mindset, hundreds of thousands of Michigan residents who live in townships have no real options if an oil rig locates near their homes,” Rep. Lucido said.  “This legislation is about local control and common sense.  It’s about giving township residents the basic rights that are afforded to people who live in cities or villages.”House Bill 4237 has been referred to the House Committee on Energy Policy.### 24Feb Townships need more control over drilling operations — Rep. Lucido Categories: Lucido Newslast_img read more

Rep Lyons bill prepares students through more graduation requirement flexibility

first_img Categories: News The House Workforce and Talent Development committee today heard testimony on a measure that would allow more flexibility in the Michigan Merit Curriculum by allowing for expanded options in meeting high school graduation requirements, including that of a computer coding class.State Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons (R-Alto), sponsor of House Bill 5463, was joined by Michael Lomonaco of Open Systems Technology in Grand Rapids and Forest Hills Public Schools Superintendent Dan Behm, as well as a teacher and two students from the school district.  They shared testimony with the committee that job providers are looking for students who have 21st century skills, and students face a credit crunch when it comes to required courses impeding their ability to also take electives where they learn important and valuable skills.“Michigan’s graduation requirements must meet the needs of our students, and every student is different,” said Rep. Lyons. “This bill has the potential to enhance and increase foreign language opportunities while adding flexibility for all students so that they are able to learn skills that not only enrich their lives, but prepare them for the 21st century workforce.”House Bill 5463 replaces the current K-12 requirement of at least two foreign language credits and one credit in visual arts, performing arts, or applied arts with a total of three credits in “21st Century Skills.” 21st Century Skills credits can be satisfied by any of the following: a language other than English; visual arts, performing arts, or applied arts; computer science or computer coding, or a combination of these; an approved formal career and technical education programThe committee plans to continue testimony on HB 5463 next week.### 28Apr Rep. Lyons’ bill prepares students through more graduation requirement flexibilitylast_img read more